Subnational estimates of life expectancy at birth in India: evidence from NFHS and SRS data.

BACKGROUND: Mortality estimates at the subnational level are of urgent need in India for the formulation of policies and programmes at the district level. This is the first-ever study which used survey data for the estimation of life expectancy at birth ([Formula: see text]) for the 640 districts from NFHS-4 (2015-16) and 707 districts from NFHS-5 (2019-21) for the total, male and female population in India. METHODS: This study calculated annual age-specific mortality rates from NFHS-4 and NFHS-5 for India and all 36 states for the total, male and female population. This paper constructed the abridged life tables and estimated life expectancy at birth [Formula: see text] and further estimated the model parameters for all 36 states. This study linked state-specific parameters to the respective districts for the estimation of life expectancy at birth [Formula: see text]for 640 districts from NFHS-4 and 707 districts from NFHS-5 for the total, male and female population in India. RESULTS: Findings at the state level showed that there were similarities between the estimated and calculated [Formula: see text] in most of the states. The results of this article observed that the highest [Formula: see text] varies in the ranges of 70 to 90 years among the districts of the southern region. [Formula: see text] falls below 70 years among most of the central and eastern region districts. In the northern region districts [Formula: see text] lies in the range of 70 years to 75 years. The estimates of life expectancy at birth [Formula: see text] shows the noticeable variations at the state and district levels for the person, male, and female populations from the NFHS (2015-16) and NFHS (2019-21). In the absence of age-specific mortality data at the district level in India, this study used the indirect estimation method of relating state-specific model parameters with the IMR of their respective districts and estimated [Formula: see text] across the 640 districts from NFHS-4 (2015-16) and 707 districts from NFHS-5 (2019-21). The findings of this study have similarities with the state-level estimations of [Formula: see text] from both data sources of SRS and NFHS and found the highest [Formula: see text] in the southern region and the lowest [Formula: see text] in the eastern and central region districts. CONCLUSIONS: In the lack of [Formula: see text] estimates at the district level in India, this study could be beneficial in providing timely life expectancy estimates from the survey data. The findings clearly shows variations in the district level [Formula: see text]. The districts from the southern region show the highest [Formula: see text] and districts from the central and eastern region has lower [Formula: see text]. Females have higher [Formula: see text] as compared to the male population in most of the districts in India.

Prevalence and determinants of gestational diabetes mellitus among pregnant women in India: an analysis of National Family Health Survey Data.

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a type of diabetes with its first recognition during pregnancy. GDM is a high-risk maternal and neonatal condition which increases the risk of Type 2 diabetes in mothers and their infants. It is essential to detect and treat GDM since its inception when mothers suffer from Type 1 diabetes while carrying the foetus during the gestational period. METHODS: The study analysed individual data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) surveyed in 2015-2016 (4th round) and 2019-2021 (5th round) covering a total of approximately 6 lakhs and 7 lakhs women, respectively. Among them, 32,072 women in 2015-2016 and 28,187 in 2019-2021 were pregnant, of whom 180 women in 2014-2015 and 247 women in 2019-2021 had diabetes during their gestational periods, allowing the percentage prevalence calculation of GDM. The analysis of Poisson regression estimates examined the socioeconomic and demographic risk factors for GDM among pregnant women. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of GDM in women showed an increase from 0.53% in 2015-16 to 0.80% in 2019-20 at the national level, and a similar increase in many states of India was witnessed, with a few exceptions. The GDM prevalence has shown a gradient over age, with a low prevalence in 15-19- and 25-29-year-olds and the highest prevalence in 40-44-year-olds. Concerning the rural and urban divide, its prevalence in both urban and rural areas has increased from 0.61 to 0.85% and 0.51 to 0.78% between 2015 and 16 and 2019-21. The results of the Poisson regression analysis reveal that older adults with high Body Mass Index (BMI), thyroid disorder, and heart disease have a greater risk of GDM among pregnant women in India. The states of Kerala, Meghalaya, and Goa show a high prevalence of GDM. CONCLUSION: The low prevalence of GDM may not be clinically significant but has negative repercussions on the mother and her child cannot be overlooked. Thus, it is essential to curb GDM since its inception and save a generation ahead from the risk of diabetes and other diseases.

Impact of COVID-19 on subnational variations in life expectancy and life disparity at birth in India: evidence from NFHS and SRS data.

BACKGROUND: Measuring life expectancy and life disparity can assist in comprehending how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the mortality estimates in the Indian population. The present study aims to study the life expectancy and life disparity at birth at the national and subnational levels before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using the NFHS and SRS data. METHODS: The measures Life expectancy at birth ([Formula: see text]) and Life disparity at birth ([Formula: see text]) were computed for the non-pandemic and pandemic years from NFHS (2015-16), SRS (2015) and NFHS (2019-21), SRS (2020) respectively at the national and Subnational level in India. Using NFHS data for the 36 states and SRS data for the 22 states, the study calculates [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] by total, male and female population. RESULTS: The [Formula: see text] for male and female decline from 64.3 years and 69.2 years in 2015-16 to 62.9 years and 68.9 years in 2019-21. The [Formula: see text] shows a drop of approximately 1.4 years for males and 0.3 years for females in the pandemic year 2019-21 when compared to the non-pandemic year 2015-16. At the subnational level [Formula: see text] shows a decline for 22 states in person, 23 states in males and 21 states in females in the pandemic year 2019-21 as compared to the non-pandemic years 2015-16. The [Formula: see text] shows a increase for 21 states in person, 24 states in females and 17 states in males in the pandemic year than non-pandemic year. The findings shows a significant losses in [Formula: see text] and gains in [Formula: see text] for males than females in the pandemic year as compared to the non-pandemic year at the subnational level in India. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 pandemic has decreased [Formula: see text] and increased [Formula: see text] in the pandemic year 2019-21 at the national and subnational level in India. COVID-19 had a significant impact on the age pattern of mortality for many states and male, female population and delayed the mortality transition in India.

The role of age inequalities in cause of death in the slow pace of epidemiological transition in India.

In developed countries, low disparity in lifespan contributed by the reduction in the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is the key to advances in epidemiological transition. Contrarily, India passing through a phase of the dual burden of CDs and NCDs shows a heavy burden of NCDs responsible for the high disparity in lifespan. The Gini coefficient was decomposed for examining the contribution of 22 causes of death and their repercussions for inequality in age at death for 30 years between 1990-1994 and 2015-2019, using Global Burden of Disease data. The outcomes of the study reveal that India's epidemiological transition has been just modest on account of high inequality in mortality by NCDs emplaced in the middle through old age despite a consistent mortality decline at infant through old age for communicable diseases (CDs). The structural changes in causes of death structure is shaped by CDs rather than NCDs, but overall bolstered by the adult mortality decline, especially in women. However, the process is restrained by the small contribution of the middle age group and a benign contribution of old mortality decline owing to the low threshold age. India needs to target health interventions in seeking significant mortality decline in the middle age group of 50-69 years that is warranted for epidemiological transition apace as evident in the developed nations.

Age heterogeneities in child growth and its associated socio-demographic factors: a cross-sectional study in India.

BACKGROUND: The impacts of socio-demographic and environmental risk factors on child growth have been widely documented. However, it remains unclear whether the impacts of such risk factors on child growth have remained static or changed with child's age. The present study aims to assess the underlying age heterogeneities in child growth and its potential determinants over age in under-five children. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on child height (measured as height-for-age z-score, i.e., HAZ) and weight (measured as weight-for-age z-score, i.e., WAZ) and potential confounding factors from India's 2015-16 National Family Health Survey (NFHS) were used to construct anthropometric age-profiles by a number of bio-demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Further, age-interacted multilevel regression analyses were performed to examine differential effects of such/those risk factors on child height and weight by age. RESULTS: Faltered height and weight growth during first two years of life was noticed in children of all socioeconomic groups studied, albeit with varying magnitude. In case of child's height, factors such as short birth interval, higher birth order, maternal education, household wealth, district level mortality rate have shown strong interaction with child's age during the first 23 months, signifying their age-varying role in different developmental stages of child growth. These factors explain the observed upward and downward shifts in height curve during first two years. Some of these variables (e.g., household wealth) have shown even stronger age interactions after the second birthday of children. For child's weight, interactive effects of most socio-demographic risk factors attenuated parabolically with child's age. CONCLUSIONS: The impacts of several risk factors, measured at the child, mother, community, and district levels, on child growth indicators varied significantly with the child's age. Nutritional interventions aimed at preventing poor linear growth in children in India should consider these underlying age heterogeneities for growth determinants into account.

Multimorbidity and its associated risk factors among older adults in India.

BACKGROUND: Health at older ages is a key public health challenge especially among the developing countries. Older adults are at greater risk of vulnerability due to their physical and functional health risks. With rapidly rising ageing population and increasing burden of non-communicable diseases older adults in India are at a greater risk for multimorbidities. Therefore, to understand this multimorbidity transition and its determinants we used a sample of older Indian adults to examine multimorbidity and its associated risk factors among the Indian older-adults aged 45 and above. METHODS: Using the sample of 72,250 older adults, this study employed the multiple regression analysis to study the risk factors of multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was computed based on the assumption of older-adults having one or more than one disease risks. RESULTS: Our results confirm the emerging diseases burden among the older adults in India. One of the significant findings of the study was the contrasting prevalence of multimorbidity among the wealthiest groups (AOR = 1.932; 95% CI = 1.824- 2.032). Similarly women were more likely to have a multimorbidity (AOR = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.282-1.401) as compared to men among the older adults in India. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm an immediate need for proper policy measures and health system strengthening to ensure the better health of older adults in India.

The burden of hypertension and unmet need for hypertension care among men aged 15-54 years: a population-based cross-sectional study in India.

Hypertension is one of the primary causes of morbidity and premature mortality among the working-age population in India. This study evaluated the burden of hypertension and unmet need for hypertension care among working-age men aged 15-54 years in India using data from the fourth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4, 2015-16). An individual was recognized as hypertensive if his blood pressure was over 140/90 mmHg or if he was consuming anti-hypertensive medication to lower his blood pressue. The study design was based on the Rule of Halves framework. Hypertensive cases were segmented into five analytical levels: (1) total, (2) screened, (3) diagnosed, (4) treated and (5) controlled cases. The prevalence of hypertension was 16% (n=16,254) among the men aged 15-54 years. Of the total hypertensive individuals, 63.2% (10,314) were screened, 21.5% (3428) were diagnosed, 12.6% (1862) were treated and only 6.1% (905) had controlled blood pressure. Of the screened individuals, 66.8% (6886) had never been diagnosed, 45.7% (1566) of those diagnosed had not receive treatment and 51.4% (957) of those treated still had uncontrolled blood pressure. The analyses revealed that 36.5% (5940) of hypertensive individuals were lost at the screening stage. The results demonstrate that there is a significant burden of hypertension and unmet need for hypertension care among men aged 15-54 in India. There is an urgent need to develop suitable strategies and programmes to manage this rising burden of hypertension among men, and reduce losses in the hypertension care continuum.

Impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy at birth in India: a decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth (e0) provide a more comprehensive understanding of the burden of coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) on mortality. The study aims to comprehend the repercussions of the burden of COVID-19 disease on the life expectancy at birth and inequality in age at death in India. METHODS: The mortality schedule of COVID-19 disease in the pandemic year 2020 was considered one of the causes of death in the category of other infectious diseases in addition to other 21 causes of death in the non-pandemic year 2019 in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. The measures e0 and Gini coefficient at age zero (G0) and then sex differences in e0 and G0 over time were analysed by assessing the age-specific contributions based on the application of decomposition analyses in the entire period of 2010-2020. RESULTS: The e0 for men and women decline from 69.5 and 72.0 years in 2019 to 67.5 and 69.8 years, respectively, in 2020. The e0 shows a drop of approximately 2.0 years in 2020 when compared to 2019. The sex differences in e0 and G0 are negatively skewed towards men. The trends in e0 and G0 value reveal that its value in 2020 is comparable to that in the early 2010s. The age group of 35-79 years showed a remarkable negative contribution to Δe0 and ΔG0. By causes of death, the COVID-19 disease has contributed - 1.5 and - 9.5%, respectively, whereas cardiovascular diseases contributed the largest value of was 44.6 and 45.9%, respectively, to sex differences in e0 and G0 in 2020. The outcomes reveal a significant impact of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 disease on mortality patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has negative repercussions on e0 and G0 in the pandemic year 2020. It has severely affected the distribution of age at death in India, resulting in widening the sex differences in e0 and G0. The COVID-19 disease demonstrates its potential to cancel the gains of six to eight years in e0 and five years in G0 and has slowed the mortality transition in India.

Progress of Inequality in Age at Death in India: Role of Adult Mortality.

India has seen a reduction in infant and child mortality rates for both the sexes since the early 1980s. However, a decline in mortality at adult ages is marked by significant differences in the subgroups of sex and regions. This study assesses the progress of inequality in age at death with the advances in mortality transition during 36 years period between 1981-1985 and 2012-2016 in India, using the Gini coefficients at the age of zero (G 0 ). The Gini coefficients show that in the mid-2000s, women outpaced men in G 0 . The reduction in inequality in age at death is a manifestation of the process of homogeneity in mortality. The low G 0 is concomitant of high life expectancy at birth (e 0 ) in India. The results show the dominance of adult mortality over child mortality in the medium-mortality and low-mortality regimes. Varying adult mortality in the subgroups of sex and variance in the mortality levels of regions are the predominant factors for the variation in inequality in age at death. By lowering of the mortality rates in the age group of 15-29 years, India can achieve a high e 0 that appears at high demographic development and the narrow sex differentials in e 0 and G 0 in a short time. Men in the age group of 15-29 years are the most vulnerable subgroup with respect to mortality. There is an immediate need for health policies in India to prioritise the aversion of premature deaths in men aged 15-29 years.

Double burden of underweight and overweight among Indian adults: spatial patterns and social determinants.

OBJECTIVE: The current study explores the spatial patterns of underweight and overweight among adult men and women in districts of India and identifies the micro-geographical locations where the risks of underweight and overweight are simultaneously prevalent, after accounting for demographic and socio-economic factors. DESIGN: We relied on BMI (weight (kg)/height squared (m2)), a measure of nutritional status among adult individuals, from the 2015-2016 National Family and Health Survey. Underweight was defined as <18·5 kg/m2 and overweight as ≥25·0 kg/m2. SETTING: We adopted Bayesian structured additive quantile regression to model the underlying spatial structure in underweight and overweight burden. PARTICIPANTS: Men aged 15-54 years (sample size: 108 092) and women aged 15-49 years (sample size: 642 002). RESULTS: About 19·7 % of men and 22·9 % of women were underweight, and 19·6 % of men and 20·6 % of women were overweight. Results indicate that malnutrition burden in adults exhibits geographical divides across the country. Districts located in the central, western and eastern regions show higher risks of underweight. There is evidence of substantial spatial clustering of districts with higher risk of overweight in southern and northern India. While finding a little evidence on double burden of malnutrition among population groups, we identified a total of sixty-six double burden districts. CONCLUSIONS: The current study demonstrates that the geographical burden of overweight in Indian adults is yet to surpass that of underweight, but the coexistence of double burden of underweight and overweight in selected regions presents a new challenge for improving nutritional status and necessitates specialised policy initiatives.

How can we better capture food away from Home? Lessons from India's linking person-level meal and household-level food data.

Despite acknowledged shortcomings, household consumption and expenditure surveys (HCES) are increasingly being used to proxy food consumption because they are relatively more available and affordable than surveys using more precise dietary assessment methods. One of the most common, significant sources of HCES measurement error is their under-estimation of food away from home (FAFH). In 2011, India's National Survey Sample Organization introduced revisions in its HCES questionnaire that included replacing "cooked meals"-the single item in the food consumption module designed to capture FAFH at the household level-with five more detailed and explicitly FAFH sub-categories. The survey also contained a section with seven, household member-specific questions about meal patterns during the reference period and included three sources of meals away from home (MAFH) that overlapped three of the new FAFH categories. By providing a conceptual framework with which to organize and consider each household member's meal pattern throughout the reference period, and breaking down the recalling (or estimating) process into household member-specific responses, we assume the MAFH approach makes the key respondent's task less memory- and arithmetically-demanding, and thus more accurate than the FAFH household level approach. We use the MAFH estimates as a reference point, and approximate one portion of FAFH measurement error as the differences in MAFH and FAFH estimates. The MAFH estimates reveal marked heterogeneity in intra-household meal patterns, reflecting the complexity of the HCES's key informant task of reporting household level data, and underscoring its importance as a source of measurement error. We find the household level-based estimates of FAFH increase from just 60.4% of the individual-based estimates in the round prior to the questionnaire modifications to 96.7% after the changes. We conclude that the MFAH-FAFH linked approach substantially reduced FAFH measurement error in India. The approach has wider applicability in global efforts to improve HCES.

Understanding epidemiological transition in India.

BACKGROUND: Omran's theory explains changing disease patterns over time predominantly from infectious to chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). India's epidemiological transition is characterized by dual burden of diseases. Kumar addressed low mortality and high morbidity in Kerala, which seems also to be true for India as a country in the current demographic scenario. METHODS: NSS data (1986-1987, 1995-1996, 2004) and aggregated data on causes of death provided by Registrar General India (RGI) were used to examine the structural changes in morbidity and causes of death. A zero-inflated poisson (ZIP) regression model and a beta-binomial model were used to corroborate the mounting age pattern of morbidity. Measures, namely the 25th and 75th percentiles of age-at-death and modal age-at-death, were used to examine the advances in mortality transition. OBJECTIVE: This study addressed the advances in epidemiological transition via exploring the structural changes in pattern of diseases and progress in mortality transition. RESULTS: The burden of NCDs has been increasing in old age without replacing the burden of communicable diseases. The manifold rise of chronic diseases in recent decades justifies the death toll and is responsible for transformation in the age pattern of morbidity. Over time, deaths have been concentrated near the modal age-at-death. Modal age-at-death increased linearly by 5 years for females (r(2)=0.9515) and males (r(2)=0.9020). Significant increase in modal age-at-death ascertained the dominance of old age mortality over the childhood/adult age mortality. CONCLUSIONS: India experiences a dual burden of diseases associated with a remarkable transformation in the age pattern of morbidity and mortality, contemporaneous with structural changes in disease patterns. Continued progress in the pattern of diseases and mortality transition, accompanied by a linear rise in ex, unravels a compelling variation in advances found so far in epidemiological transition witnessed by the developed nations, with similar matrices for India.

Changing age patterns of morbidity vis-à-vis mortality in India.

The combined effects of decreased fertility and mortality coupled with increasing survivorship across most ages have been upsetting the levels and age patterns of morbidity and mortality in India. This study examined data from the National Sample Survey (NSS) and Sample Registration System (SRS) of India. The results reveal marked structural changes in the age patterns of morbidity and mortality. The analysis also tested whether morbidity contours are being compressed or expanded, connecting it with the ongoing processes of demographic and epidemiological transition. The Sullivan (1971) method was used to estimate the health ratio over three time periods to ascertain the expansion of morbidity. The results reveal an exceptional rise in the prevalence rate of chronic non-communicable diseases in ages 60 and above. The proportion of unhealthy years of the total life expectancy has increased more than before for all older age groups. Overall, the results confirm that an expansion of morbidity is in progress, with a heavier and cumulated concentration of morbidity in older ages. The expansion of morbidity hypothesis is validated for major categories of population: rural, urban, male and female. Older females bear a much heavier burden of chronic non-communicable diseases and are vulnerable to a higher proportion of unhealthy years. The age-structural shifts in morbidity and mortality signal the steady progress of epidemiological transition in India.

Decelerating mortality rates in older ages and its prospects through Lee-Carter approach.

The present study attempts to study the age pattern mortality and prospects through Lee-Carter approach. The objectives of the study are to examine the trend of mortality decline and life expectancy. Contemporaneously, we have projected life expectancy up to 2025, projecting ASDR using Lee-Carter method. Life table aging rate (LAR) used to estimate the rate of mortality deceleration. Overtime, LAR increased and during recent decade it remained more or less unchanged. By age, LAR significant increased in the oldest of old. The slope is steepest in the oldest of old in the recent decade. The rates of mortality increased in oldest of old as the age group is more vulnerable to chronic disease and vulnerable to identifiable risk factors for virtually every disease, marked by senility. The analysis revealed that the level of mortality is not declining but rate of acceleration is declining and is further expected to decline. By the year 2025, the age specific death rates for the age group 5-9 and 10-14 will go below one per thousand.Life expectancy will attained as high as 73 and 79 years for male and female and is further expected to increase linearly. 71 percent of total female birth and 57 percent of total male birth will survive up to age 70+. Also the findings revealed that mortality rate is declining with constant rate up to age 70 and thereafter, the mortality rate accelerates and this holds true for both sexes.